The NFL season is trudging along, and we are all adapting to games — and betting lines — getting moved around due to positive COVID-19 tests and/or injuries to impact players. Week 6 brings some intriguing spread, moneyline, and over/under opportunties, including for the marquee Packers-Buccaneers showdown.
Every week, I break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. So far, my recommendations have gone 9-6.
Let’s take a look at three Week 6 bets you should consider making.
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Titans -3.5 vs. Texans
BetQL is giving the Titans a 67.62-percent chance to win this game outright, and I think there’s a solid chance that they blow the Texans out in this spot. Not only is Tennessee off to a 4-0 overall start compared to Houston’s 1-4 mark, but this Titans offense has also been clicking in recent weeks. They put up 33 against the Jaguars in Week 2, 31 against the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 3, and then shocked the Bills with 42 last week in a blowout.
The main reason I love Tennessee is because their rushing attack has a dream matchup. Led by Derrick Henry, the Titans average 131.5 rushing yards per contest (ninth in the NFL) and call rushing plays at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed 160.4 rushing yards per contest (31st), and teams have continuously exploited their run-stopping deficiencies. If Tennessee gets up early, it’s difficult to have confidence in Houston’s offense consistently putting up points drive after drive without go-to playmakers other than Deshaun Watson.
NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Jaguars +145 vs. Lions
Alright, let’s address the Jaguars first. They’re 1-4 and aren’t exactly off to a great start despite the fact that their Week 2 loss to the Titans came by three points and their Week 4 loss to the Bengals came by eight points. However, they’re +145 home underdogs against the Lions, who are 1-3 heading into this contest.
Via BetQL’s game page, a couple trends validate my interest in Jacksonville in this spot. First, Lions head coach Matt Patricia has gone 2-14 SU vs. teams with a completion rate of 64 percent or better. Second, Patricia has gone 1-12 SU vs. teams averaging 7.0 or more passing yards per attempt since taking over in Detroit. Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew II is off to a solid individual start and has completed 69.9 percent of his passes while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt (1,439 yards, 10 TDs, four INTs) in five starts. That spells trouble for Detroit’s susceptible pass defense, and getting the Jags as a home dog is a value that’s too good to pass up.
Per BetQL’s game page, 62 percent of total money wagered is backing Jacksonville’s moneyline.
NFL Week 6 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Buccaneers vs. Packers UNDER 55.5
This is somehow just the third career matchup between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, and it’s an intriguing one. Tampa Bay is in need of a statement win, but it has some major injury concerns. Green Bay is undefeated and has some injury concerns of its own. With that being said, this total is just too high for a few other reasons.
First, these teams play slow. Green Bay ranks dead last in pace at 30.63 seconds between plays, and Tampa Bay (27.5 seconds) also plays slower than the league average (27.04 seconds). Second, both defenses have upside. The Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in points allowed per contest (22.4), and the Packers rank 17th (25.2). While the Packers have had the best and most efficient offense in the NFL (38 points per game) and the Buccaneers (27.8 points per contest) have also been impressive, there should be some regression to the mean in this spot. The UNDER has won in two of the past three Buccaneers games with the following totals: 42.5, 42.5 and 44. Bet UNDER the inflated 55.5 point total in this one, and don’t expect a shootout.
Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 6 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!